Are we seriously going back to ‘normal’?

Despite major changes during pandemic (like the shift of technology that forces people to work in distance, or vaccines technology that are rapidly developed as a global effort), it only accelerates things that already exist but not yet fully developed, not entirely creates a new one.

I just finished a book I have longed to read in 2021, Post Corona : From Crisis to Opportunity. However, I finished the book on May 2022, where all the narratives of pandemic has shifted to endemic, where approximately more than 60% of Indonesians have been at least vaccinated 2 times, and millions of people did the homecoming journey. That alone have created a madness traffic Jam across Java island because too many people went to places at the same time. the public transportation (train, plane) were fully functioned but also didn’t help to mitigate the homecoming traffic jam fiasco.

Before finishing the book, I thought to my self that in just 24 months, gig economy were completely down. Airlines, hospitality industries, and retails were forced to make a radical reduction to sustain the business, and even some of them are history now. Music concert and any other form of entertainment had shifted from on site experiences to “in-your phone/home” experiences, as if we couldn’t have other option to choose the former. But again, after all the effort from briliant scientists all around the world that created vaccines as soonest as possible, and Indonesian’s government effort in vaccinating 60% of its citizen, it only took a week-off for people to literally restore their old habit back in 2019, where Ramadan is a festive moment to spend time closely with family and doing silahturahmi to visit relatives.This year’s Ramadan is very different, massively different. It’s unimaginable if we think at the beginning of 2022 we were still afraid with Omnicrom. It’s crazy right?

So are we going back to normal? It turns out that this book confirms one simple thing about pandemic. Despite major changes during pandemic (like the shift of technology that forces people to work in distance, or vaccines technology that are rapidly developed as a global effort), it only accelerates things that already exist but not yet fully developed. So it makes sense now. Back then, who the hell need Zoom when you can reimburse transportation cost to meet client and spend half day on the streets? But after the pandemic hit, we changed our habit to the very core. But in the end, will it last? These are things that I would like to map, which trend will rise again from the dead, and which one will be forgotten as if the virus doesn’t exist in the first place?

Will the gig economy rise again from the dead?

The pinnacle of gig economy happened approximately the last 3 years before the pandemic. Where business model “matchmaking” were ramifying and it’s everyone’s favorite, from investors, consumers, and even government. Suddenly, everyone want to be a “matchmaking” company because the business cost is low and it’s unregulated in terms of law support (related to taxes and job creation policy). Think about gojek or grab where they utilize their drivers as “assets” but as the same time they don’t consider their drivers as “employee”, so all the benefit that employee should get in the name of law are entirely up to the gojek/grab alone. From business cost wise, this will be beneficial for the company and not so for the people.

Gig economy was dead purely because the restriction of social interaction due to health protocols during pandemic. But seeing all people have been vaccinated and the technology to create vaccine are very advanced, I don’t see the reason this trend will stay dead in the future. However, is this the trend that I want personally to rise again? Not sure. We have seen the down-side from gig economy due to its unregulated work environment. It only creates more trouble and as long as the government doesn’t take control to create justified regulation both for companies and the people. I read in the book that US had tried to regulate Uber by forcing them to make their drivers as “employee” in an area that are categorized as “high density/highly populated”. This was just example but it’s a small step towards reorganizing gig economy so it will create more benefit in the future, both for companies and prosperity for the people.

Will public transportation prevail again?

This is a tricky question, because not everyone can afford private vehicle to commute, so for this case, most Indonesians will stick to public transporation whether it’s pandemic/not. However, there were nudge from the government in the past two years to boost the economy and stimulated consumption, government gives 0% tax on new private vehicle. It seems that the solution to overcome stagnancy in consumption was solved by buying a new car. This shows how car industries in Indonesia really beguile our government to push certain policies that will impact the industry itself.

To answer this question, maybe the right question would be whether the infrastructure in public transportation are getting better even after the pandemic? One thing for sure, mobility will increase massively in 2022. And we have passed the era where we are too much relying on gig transportation as OUR ONLY PROPER public transportation in town. Commuter lines, buses, and MRT are getting better. So people have options to mix their choices of transportation accordingly. And that’s a good sign.

Will company (mostly social media) still rely on engagement algorithm as their core business?

This might surprise you. What we know as “facebook business model” where the platforms are free and our data is being mined for advertising purposes, this model seems work for a very long time and won’t likely to change. But what we saw in May 2022 where Elon Musk just bought Twitter, one thing for sure, it takes a shit ton of funding to allow company break free from engagement algorithm. And it’s totally ok as long you get the investor. Twitter are being encouraged by Elon Musk to not relying too much on ad revenue, and instead shift their business to provide subscription model. So maybe, from 2022 onwards, real-tangible product that require subscriptions will become the new norm instead of free accessible platform. And maybe, other companies will also follow and create tier of subscriptions both for brands and consumers.

The impact of this changes will be big for marketing and advertising alone. Brands will be more assured that every ad spent on platforms are not entirely fraud (due to free and unjustified ad metric performances) since subscriptions can guarantee more high quality metrics, and it’s not too much conflicting with privacy issues (since you pay, and you can agree on what’s being taken from you). The rise of privacy will force brands to shift from micro targeting to mass targeting again, and creativity will take the lead again instead of dictated by best practices format from the media.

But how about veteran players that are already in the subscriptions game, say, Netflix? Who would have thought that Netflix can plummet and sufffer in 2022? Back then during the pandemic, Netflix is one of the company that sustain and really benefit the situation organically. But due to many competitors are backed by media tycoon and subsidized their subscription price, Netflix are now being perceived as too expensive. Also, the content production from Netflix are getting too specific for certain genre (K-drama), so the downfall is maybe not because it plummets, but because it’s part of the strategy? I don’t know for sure. However, in 2022, I have finally the courage to let go my Netflix subscription. I have other choices to allocate Netflix budget to Apple One bundle, and HBO Go!

Will tech company take over the government job to look over the people?

This is not sarcasm. It’s really written in the book by Prof. Scott, however I paraphrase the context a little bit. So, it’s true that all this time, we somehow put a sense of responsibility for tech company with moral compass. This happens because they’ve grown too fast in an unregulated market, where no one can control what they can/can’t do, and they are the only one who now has the capability in terms of distribution, wealth, to do things at scale. They have data, they control massive people, they have the advance technology for profit purposes. In Indonesia alone, our government relied the vaccines distribution from notable tech companies and indeed it was a helpful experience from the consumer POV. But again, tech company is still company, and their purpose is to make profit, NOT growing commonwealth for the country.

It’s a comfort for us to idolize tech companies/CEO with moral compass because deep down we have zero hope if we rely on our own government. But again, Prof. Scott argues that for the longer run, we still need to push government to do their actual job by creating policies and strict collaboration on how should tech companies help government. The role of government is not to punish/reward tech companies as the Jesus Christ of humanity, but as collaborator that is specifically contributes to the process of society advancement. However, that is too good to be true knowing the fact that some of the shareholder of those tech companies might be also people from the government. Am I right?

So, are we going back to “normal”?

The final answer is I don’t know. But i’m happy to face a new era where I will have option not to go back from my pre-pandemic era. In the end, what matters is if all those new habit we have developed in the last 2 years can be used as option. I don’t have to work fully from office, because company gives me option to set my own schedule. I don’t have to rely on gig transportation, because I have other set of transportation’s options. The purest form of freedom is by giving options, no?

But one thing for sure, we will still have to use Peduli Lindungi app.